I recently shared that seed investment relative to total venture investment neared an all-time high in the second quarter of 20011. One-third of all new venture deals were made at the seed stage according to data from the National Venture Capital Association and PwC. I thought it might also be useful to share what was going on with the average investment size for new seed deals. Is more of a focus on seed stage deals driving up valuations? Well, yes and no. The average seed investment more than doubled over the first quarter of the year – up from $1.5 million to $3.1 million. So yes, clearly there’s a significant increase from the quarter prior (but I have some issues with that data which I’ll discuss later). On the other hand, the average seed stage investment has averaged $3.3 million since 2006. So we’re actually still below the average in recent history.
Data Source: PricewaterhouseCoopers/National Venture Capital Association MoneyTree™ Report, Data: Thomson Reuters
I think there are a few factors at play that have prevented seed valuations on the whole from rising too much:
Back to that issue with the Q1 data - as with the data on the number of new investments, there’s a strange anomaly in Q1 of 2011 with the average deal size as well. It’s as if investors took a dramatic pause in the first quarter – did fewer seed deals, and invested less in each deal. Again, the reason is not quite clear to me because the general impression I got from observing the market was that seed and early stage investment was hot, driven not only by a rise in super angel/micro VC funds, but also more seed investment activity on the part of traditional venture firms. One reason why the data might not match up with anecdotal evidence is that maybe investors were really taking a wait and see approach on how the venture-backed companies that held IPOs in the first quarter did before actually closing on new deals. Clearly a record-setting second quarter in terms of venture-backed IPOs in the IT sector helped boost confidence and probably led to the spike in the relative number of seed stage deals and dollar amounts in Q2. I’m still open to hearing if anyone has any alternate theories.
UPDATE: On his blog Reaction Wheel, Jerry Neumann shared that he has a nagging suspicion about early-stage venture capitalists: "About six months ago it seemed like they were slowing down their pace of investing while the corporates and newer super-angels were doing a lot more deals." If this is true, it surley can help explain the anomoly in Q1 the data. Since only institutional venture firms are included, the suspicion that they slowed up on seed stage deals can actually be confirmed. On the whole though, seed stage investment seemed like it was going strong because in reality, it was - just led by super angels whose deals do not make it into this data. As for if this is a warning sign, I think its too early to tell - but it is intersting that in the next quarter, relative seed stage investment by VCs hit levels last seen right before the bursting of the tech bubble.